November jobs report: Slowing continues post-shutdown

The latest jobs numbers are out from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. What do they mean for job seekers, employers and investors? Here’s a quick take from Glassdoor’s Chief Economist Daniel Zhao.

The November jobs report provides a first view of the job market after the government shutdown ended on November 12. Health care has continued to drive payroll growth even as federal workforce cuts resulted in a third month of job losses this year. With health care supporting jobs growth, there are signs emerging of softness in the job market with the unemployment rate continuing to rise and wage growth slowing. Overall, today’s jobs report shows a cooling job market trajectory surprisingly unchanged by the government shutdown.

Key stats

Private payroll growth firms after shutdown

Private payrolls expanded by 69,000 in November and 52,000 in October. In the last 3 months, private payroll growth has averaged 75,000 jobs added monthly, a substantial improvement from the 3 months prior. The sluggish summer months of June through August averaged just 13,000 jobs added to private payrolls.

Federal payrolls drove the shrinking in payroll employment in October. 162,000 workers rolled off of federal payrolls as the deferred resignation program took effect for most affected workers at the end of September. While the sharp drop in October is striking, the federal workforce has also shrunk by an additional 109,000 since its January peak due to reduced hiring and other separations, a similarly large impact.

The economic uncertainty after April seems to have abated slightly as businesses adapt to the new policy environment. Resilient consumer spending has continued to grow, likely backstopping the job market. Additionally, health care & social assistance added 64,000 jobs in November, following a 64,600 payroll increase in October, indicating that health care accounted for almost all private payroll gains and remains the engine of jobs growth for the U.S.. Economic signals point to a job market that has managed to avoid deteriorating sharply during and after the government shutdown.

Unemployment tells a different story

While payroll growth has appeared to firm since the summer, the unemployment rate has continued to inch upward, rising to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in September, rising to the highest level since September 2021, over 4 years ago.

The unemployment rate itself isn’t yet flashing a recession warning (it still remains below the Sahm rule recession indicator threshold). But the steady rise is concerning as continued increases put it on track to cross that threshold. Additionally, in November, the share of workers employed part time for economic reasons also rose, driving broader measures of labor underutilization like the U-6 unemployment rate higher, rising to 8.7% in November, a sharp increase from 8% in September. 

Shutdown impacts on measurement

The government shutdown ended on the evening of November 12 and the November data should be fully post-shutdown given that the reference periods for both the household and establishment surveys include post-shutdown working days.

The government shutdown means that October household data (including the unemployment rate) was not collected. The noise in the household survey measures may also be unusually large in November because new survey respondents were not added to the panel in October.

For the establishment survey, both October and November data is reflected in this latest report and the extended collection period for data may actually result in smaller than usual revisions for October data. 

Regardless, it pays to be humble and wait for another report or two to feel more confident about the trajectory of the job market post-shutdown.

More insights

Nonfarm payrolls grew by 64,000 in November after shrinking by 105,000 in October. October marks the third month in 2025 of job losses.

Federal payroll employment is down 4% compared to its pre-Covid level. The sharp drop in October due to the deferred resignation drop is notable, however, the steady decline since January has also contributing significantly to the shrinking of the federal workforce.

Health care and social assistance averaged 60,000 jobs added monthly in H2 2025, slightly slower than the pace of the last few years, but still a reliable jobs growth engine. Many other industries like transportation & warehousing, information, finance, manufacturing, professional and business services, and government have all been steady job losers in H2.

Average hourly earnings grew just 3.5% year-over-year in November, down from 3.7% in both October and September. That's the slowest pace of wage growth since 2021 when wage growth dropped sharply due to mechanical reasons (lapping early pandemic months).

The wage growth slowdown should be taken with a grain of salt though. Production & nonsupervisory worker wage growth was still 3.9% year-over-year in November while nonproduction & supervisory wage growth (which is more volatile) contributed to the slowdown.

Black unemployment rate rose further to 8.3% in November, the highest level in over 4 years (since Aug 2021).

The share of employed working part-time for economic reasons spiked to 3.4%, highest since May 2021. This group is defined as part-time workers who want but are unable to find full-time work or hours. This series is volatile and with the data collection challenges due to the shutdown, it is prudent to wait for more data to be more confident in this measurement.

This jobs report featured a mixed bag on prime-age (25–54) labor measures: Prime-age labor force participation rose to 83.8% in November but prime-age employment-population ratio ticked down to 80.6%. Both measures are a touch below their 2024 peaks, not pointing to sudden deterioration in job market.