Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index: Employee Mood Gloomier in October
Daniel Zhao
Chief Economist at Glassdoor | Oct 30, 2023
Employee confidence deteriorated in October, reaching a fresh low, according to the latest data from the Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index. The share of employees reporting a positive 6-month business outlook continues to slump, falling to 45 percent in October 2023, down from 46.2 percent in September and significantly down from 54.6 percent in October last year. Even as economic news remains steady if not strong, employees' views on their employers’ business outlooks are souring.
Why is employee confidence falling even as broader economic data remains strong? American workers may be most concerned about their job security regardless of how the economy is doing. For example, workers are discussing the risk of recession less and less in Glassdoor reviews even as they discuss layoffs more and more.
Discussion of recession spiked in the second half of 2022, but peaked in February 2023 and has modestly declined since then. Mentions of recession in Glassdoor reviews have fallen 10 percent year-over-year in October 2023. By contrast, discussion of layoffs continues to rise, rising 60 percent year-over-year in October 2023, reaching the highest level since July 2020.
And in fact, if you look specifically at employees who feel their employers have a negative business outlook, this contrast is even more stark. Employees with a negative business outlook are 1.4 times more likely to mention recession than employees with a positive business outlook; however, employees with a negative business outlook are 7.3 times more likely to mention layoffs. This suggests employees are feeling modestly more optimistic about the national economic situation even as they grow increasingly concerned about being laid off or feeling the effects of layoffs in their company or industry.
Employee Confidence by Industry
- Construction still holds the highest employee confidence of any industry in our data at 57.9 percent; however, confidence has waned, falling 7.1 percentage points since last October. Even as the housing market has been surprisingly stable, higher interest rates are crimping demand for housing.
- Education and health services have seen among the smallest declines in employee confidence. The healthcare industry is traditionally recession-proof and with the worst of the pandemic behind us, employees may feel more confident in their ability to weather a potential recession compared to other industries.
- Information (-13.1 percentage points) and professional and business services (-11.1 percentage points) have seen the largest declines in employee confidence over the last year with little sign of improvement in October.
Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index by Industry
| Industry | Oct 2022 | Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | MoM | YoY |
| Construction | 65.0% | 59.6% | 57.9% | -1.7% | -7.1% |
| Education and health services | 53.7% | 47.8% | 47.7% | -0.1% | -6.0% |
| Financial activities | 58.5% | 53.1% | 51.6% | -1.4% | -6.8% |
| Information | 61.9% | 49.0% | 48.8% | -0.1% | -13.1% |
| Leisure and hospitality | 47.4% | 40.1% | 38.1% | -2.0% | -9.3% |
| Manufacturing | 55.1% | 46.0% | 45.1% | -0.8% | -10.0% |
| Other services | 52.9% | 45.1% | 43.8% | -1.3% | -9.0% |
| Professional and business services | 63.3% | 53.5% | 52.2% | -1.3% | -11.1% |
| Public administration | 49.1% | 42.8% | 42.4% | -0.4% | -6.7% |
| Retail trade | 44.0% | 38.5% | 37.1% | -1.4% | -7.0% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 53.7% | 46.3% | 45.1% | -1.2% | -8.5% |
| Utilities | 62.1% | 55.3% | 56.5% | 1.2% | -5.6% |
| Wholesale trade | 56.7% | 47.5% | 47.7% | 0.2% | -9.1% |
Employee Confidence by Seniority
Employee confidence dropped sharply for senior employees in October, falling 5.1 percentage points month-over-month. The steep fall in October means senior employees have seen the largest decline over the last year, an 11.9 percentage point decline, though senior employees are still more confident than mid-level and entry-level employees.
Methodology
The Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index is a new report that provides a real-time pulse on the economy from the lens of employees. As one of the world’s leading sites for insights on jobs and companies, Glassdoor collects tens of thousands of employee ratings of their employers’ six-month business outlook (rated as “positive”, “neutral” or “negative”) each month.
The index is the share of U.S. full-time and part-time employees who report a positive six-month business outlook for their employer. The index is reweighted to account for changes in the platform and by industry to match a nationally representative mix of employee ratings by industry. Data presented at the industry and seniority level are three-month trailing averages.
Data on mentions of topics in Glassdoor reviews is not reweighted. Mentions include similar terms e.g., “layoff”-related terms include “laid off”, “layoffs”, “lay off”, etc. and “recession”-related terms include “downturn”, etc.
Data for October 2023 is current as of October 23, 2023. In subsequent updates, we will revise partial or preliminary data from previous months.
To read more about the Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index, please read our launch paper.
Daniel Zhao
Daniel Zhao is Chief Economist at Glassdoor. On Glassdoor's Economic Research team, he has conducted research using Glassdoor's unique data on a variety of topics affecting job seekers and employers ranging from the health of the job market to pay transparency to employee engagement & retention. His work has been cited in publications like the New York Times, the Harvard Business Review and more. Prior to joining the Economic Research team, he also worked on improving the user experience for Glassdoor’s consumer jobs product and mobile app. He holds a bachelor's degree in applied mathematics and economics from Harvard College.
Tags:Labor MarketUnemployment
