Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index: Flatlining to start the fall
Daniel Zhao
Chief Economist at Glassdoor | Oct 8, 2024
Employee confidence was mostly unchanged in September, according to the latest data from the Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index. The share of employees reporting a positive 6-month business outlook rose ever so slightly to 47.7% in September 2024, up from 47.6% in August. Employee confidence remains sluggish as the summer ends. While the recession fears from 2023 have faded, employee confidence has only improved modestly over 2024.
What are the implications of weak employee confidence on retention and turnover? In a strong job market, employees who don’t believe in their employers are likely to look for a new job at a company that offers better prospects. In fact, Glassdoor data shows that employees who rate their employers’ business outlook negatively are more than twice as likely to apply to a new job on Glassdoor as employees who rate the outlook positively.
But in a softer job market with sluggish hiring, many of these dissatisfied employees are unlikely to be able to find a new job. The latest BLS data for August shows that the hires rate has fallen to 3.3%, comparable to 2013 levels and similarly, the quits rate is down to 1.9%, comparable to 2015 levels. This could help explain weak employee confidence, as more employees are stuck at companies they don’t believe in. It also highlights a potential risk for employers—if the job market heats back up, turnover is likely to accelerate as dissatisfied workers leave.
Employee Confidence by Industry
- Employee confidence in construction has dropped 3.5 percentage points over the last year. Even as the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates, it may take time for improvement to flow into the housing market and construction industry as many Americans hold onto locked-in mortgage rates.
- Employee confidence in sectors dependent on consumer spending like personal consumer services (-4pp) and hotels & travel accommodation (-2.7pp) has declined over the last year. By contrast, retail (+1pp) and restaurants & food service (+2.8pp) have seen modest increases. This points to a mixed picture for consumer spending which has remained resilient despite a slowing economy and may suggest declining spending on less essential categories like travel.
Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index by Industry
| Industry | Sep 2023 | Aug 2024 | Sep 2024 | MoM | YoY |
| Aerospace & Defense | 51.3% | 53.8% | 54.2% | 0.4% | 2.9% |
| Arts, Entertainment & Recreation | 39.6% | 38.0% | 41.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| Construction, Repair & Maintenance Services | 58.5% | 56.7% | 55.0% | -1.7% | -3.5% |
| Education | 45.5% | 45.5% | 47.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Energy, Mining & Utilities | 55.1% | 55.1% | 53.1% | -2.1% | -2.0% |
| Financial Services | 52.8% | 55.2% | 53.4% | -1.8% | 0.6% |
| Government & Public Administration | 42.5% | 44.1% | 44.5% | 0.5% | 2.1% |
| Healthcare | 46.9% | 51.8% | 52.6% | 0.8% | 5.7% |
| Hotels & Travel Accommodation | 49.1% | 44.9% | 46.5% | 1.6% | -2.7% |
| Human Resources & Staffing | 57.6% | 60.0% | 59.6% | -0.4% | 2.0% |
| Information Technology | 50.5% | 54.5% | 53.9% | -0.7% | 3.4% |
| Insurance | 52.0% | 52.9% | 52.4% | -0.5% | 0.4% |
| Legal | 57.8% | 59.2% | 53.9% | -5.3% | -3.9% |
| Management & Consulting | 49.8% | 50.8% | 51.4% | 0.6% | 1.5% |
| Manufacturing | 46.1% | 44.9% | 43.7% | -1.2% | -2.4% |
| Media & Communication | 44.4% | 45.8% | 45.0% | -0.8% | 0.6% |
| Nonprofit & NGO | 43.2% | 50.2% | 49.0% | -1.2% | 5.8% |
| Personal Consumer Services | 42.3% | 38.8% | 38.3% | -0.5% | -4.0% |
| Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology | 39.7% | 41.1% | 38.8% | -2.3% | -0.9% |
| Real Estate | 57.7% | 57.3% | 58.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Restaurants & Food Service | 36.3% | 39.9% | 39.1% | -0.8% | 2.8% |
| Retail & Wholesale | 39.0% | 39.5% | 39.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| Telecommunications | 43.5% | 45.1% | 41.6% | -3.4% | -1.8% |
| Transportation & Logistics | 45.7% | 49.3% | 47.1% | -2.3% | 1.4% |
Employee Confidence by Seniority
Employee confidence fell again for senior-level employees in September, dropping to 63% from 63.7% in August and now at the lowest level since October 2023. Softness in senior-level employee confidence is concerning as it may foreshadow cuts to hiring and investment plans. Over the last two years, confidence for senior-level employees has dropped 7.7 percentage points compared to 6.6 percentage points for mid-level employees and 4.4 percentage points for entry-level employees.
Methodology
The Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index is a new report that provides a real-time pulse on the economy from the lens of employees. As one of the world’s leading sites for insights on jobs and companies, Glassdoor collects tens of thousands of employee ratings of their employers’ six-month business outlook (rated as “positive”, “neutral” or “negative”) each month.
The index is the share of U.S. full-time and part-time employees who report a positive six-month business outlook for their employer. The index is reweighted to account for changes in the platform and by industry to match a nationally representative mix of employee ratings by industry. Data presented at the industry and seniority level are three-month trailing averages.
To measure the likelihood of applying to a new job based on business outlook, we looked at reviews left by current full-time or part-time employees in the U.S. from January 1, 2024 through August 31, 2024 and looked at any job applications that reviewer subsequently started in the 7 days following their review.
Data for September 2024 is updated through September 29, 2024. In subsequent updates, we will revise partial or preliminary data from previous months.
To read more about the Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index, please read our launch paper.
Daniel Zhao
Daniel Zhao is Chief Economist at Glassdoor. On Glassdoor's Economic Research team, he has conducted research using Glassdoor's unique data on a variety of topics affecting job seekers and employers ranging from the health of the job market to pay transparency to employee engagement & retention. His work has been cited in publications like the New York Times, the Harvard Business Review and more. Prior to joining the Economic Research team, he also worked on improving the user experience for Glassdoor’s consumer jobs product and mobile app. He holds a bachelor's degree in applied mathematics and economics from Harvard College.
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