Low-hire, low-fire job market for who?
Daniel Zhao
Chief Economist at Glassdoor | Nov 18, 2025
Over the last year, economists have begun referring to the job market as “low-hire, low-fire” as layoffs have remained low but hiring has also been sluggish. Ahead of the delayed September jobs report, let’s take a look at how fair whether that “low-hire, low-fire” framing is.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey captures both gross hires and gross layoffs & discharges. And indeed, the JOLTS data absolutely agrees with this “low-hire” framing. As of August 2025 (the latest data pre-shutdown), the hires rate dropped to 3.2%, just barely above the Covid low of 3.1% and consistent with levels last seen pre-pandemic in March 2013. Part of the reason workers feel so dour about the current job market is because sluggish hiring makes it hard for laid-off workers to get back on their feet, for new grads to enter the workforce and for still-employed workers to climb the career ladder.
Similarly, despite prominent layoffs gripping headlines, the layoffs & discharges rate is still slightly below pre-pandemic levels though it has ticked up ever so slightly over the last 2 years.
When we look industry by industry though, the story is slightly different. Looking at annual averages (2019 vs. 2025 YTD), almost every industry has seen lower hiring rates in 2025 compared to 2019. Health care & social assistance is a prominent exception, which aligns with the industry being one of the few major sectors still growing payrolls. Finance & insurance hiring is also fairly similar between 2019 and 2025, but almost every other industry besides these two have lower hiring rates now compared to pre-pandemic.
The “low fire” narrative is more mixed. The lower layoffs rate is being driven by a few key industries. Construction, retail, real estate, accommodation & food services have seen much lower layoff & discharge rates in 2025 compared to 2019. By contrast, layoff rates in industries like information, finance & insurance, professional & business services are very similar in 2025 to their pre-pandemic levels.
Combining these data points, industries like information, which includes media and tech, have seen their hires rates fall but layoffs & discharges rates rebound to pre-pandemic level. Information in particular has seen its hires rate drop from 3.3% in 2019 to 2.9% in 2025, but the layoffs & discharges rate is essentially unchanged. So while it may still be fair to say that low-fire is accurate at the economy-wide level, there are industries where that isn’t true.
Table: Hires rate vs. layoffs & discharges rate by industry
| Hires rate | Layoffs & discharges rate | |||||
| Industry | 2019 | 2025 | Chg | 2019 | 2025 | Chg |
| Total nonfarm | 3.9% | 3.4% | -0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | -0.1% |
| Total private | 4.3% | 3.7% | -0.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | -0.1% |
| Mining and logging | 3.5% | 3.2% | -0.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | -0.6% |
| Construction | 5.6% | 4.2% | -1.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | -0.8% |
| Manufacturing | 2.6% | 2.4% | -0.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Durable goods manufacturing | 2.4% | 2.3% | -0.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Nondurable goods manufacturing | 3.1% | 2.7% | -0.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Trade, transportation, and utilities | 4.2% | 3.5% | -0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | -0.1% |
| Wholesale trade | 2.5% | 2.3% | -0.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | -0.1% |
| Retail trade | 4.8% | 3.8% | -1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | -0.2% |
| Transportation, warehousing, and utilities | 4.1% | 3.9% | -0.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Information | 3.3% | 2.9% | -0.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Financial activities | 2.5% | 2.3% | -0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Finance and insurance | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Real estate and rental and leasing | 3.5% | 2.8% | -0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | -0.3% |
| Professional and business services | 5.4% | 4.6% | -0.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | -0.1% |
| Private education and health services | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Private educational services | 2.6% | 2.3% | -0.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | -0.2% |
| Health care and social assistance | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Leisure and hospitality | 6.8% | 5.7% | -1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | -0.4% |
| Arts, entertainment, and recreation | 7.0% | 6.4% | -0.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 0.2% |
| Accommodation and food services | 6.8% | 5.6% | -1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | -0.5% |
| Other services | 3.7% | 3.3% | -0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | -0.1% |
| Government | 1.6% | 1.5% | -0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| Federal | 1.5% | 0.9% | -0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| State and local | 1.6% | 1.5% | -0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
| State and local government education | 1.6% | 1.5% | -0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
| State and local government, excluding education | 1.7% | 1.6% | -0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, August 2025
In sum, the job market has shifted in the last year where “low hire, low fire” is not as universal as it may have been. Certain industries are seeing their layoffs & discharges rates creep up on par with pre-pandemic levels. But generally, “low hire” still seems to be a fairly universal story in the job market, which is a useful reminder that while layoffs are painful and attention-grabbing, sluggish hiring can be just as consequential for a wide swath of workers by blocking entry or reentry into the workforce and by limiting career and wage growth.
Daniel Zhao
Daniel Zhao is Chief Economist at Glassdoor. On Glassdoor's Economic Research team, he has conducted research using Glassdoor's unique data on a variety of topics affecting job seekers and employers ranging from the health of the job market to pay transparency to employee engagement & retention. His work has been cited in publications like the New York Times, the Harvard Business Review and more. Prior to joining the Economic Research team, he also worked on improving the user experience for Glassdoor’s consumer jobs product and mobile app. He holds a bachelor's degree in applied mathematics and economics from Harvard College.
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